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Princetontrader July 21, 2016: Lose The Weekly Pivot...Pay The Price
This is an excellent example that will play out time and again in the weeks ahead. Until bears can win this battle the rally will persist.
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7:22 am ET Webcast to follow. Bulls failed to capitalize on another opportunity to trade above the mid band on the daily chart. With each subsequent failure the likelihood that the dip buyers take a step back and look for value lower increases. The Bears have shown an equal inability to trade below the 2126 area having made matching support in the 2126 area. we remain in this newly carved out range between 2144 and 2126. Win that range and you win the day and win the advantage headed into next week.
Thursday's Post: "Bulls made a run at the daily midband/2143.50 area after the debate. That area has survived as resistance overnight. That is a concern for longs especially if this remains the situation after the regular open.The bulls must convert 43-45 to support in order to be able to go after monthly pivot at 2147 and the 2163.50 high from 10/10. If 2143-45 survive the day then Bears have a clear path to retest 2126-2128."
Wednesday's Post: "The Bulls had another chance on Tuesday to push this market back to the daily midband but were unable to gain momentum during the regular trading session. The Bears defended the highs but failed to make any progress toward converting the 2118 support area. What we were left with was a choppy trading day. The goals for each side remain the same for Wednesday.The side that converts these levels will own the next short term market leg. That should stretch into the rest of this week."
Tuesday's Post: "Bulls held the 2118 area and created a higher low for two sessions since the 2107.75 move on 10/13. Bears needed to break that low today. The move overnight to the area of weekly pivot will make the Bears job very difficult. The daily midband at 2146 is now open for a price test. The bulls have the clear advantage."
Monday's Post: "Despite the failed attempt to retake the Daily Midband on Friday the lower band avoided contact. We touched the lower band during last nights Globex so while we are technically not in a band ride we have either engaged or barely missed the lower Bollinger Band for the past 5 days. What is important is that the price action is consistent with a lower band ride. All rallies are being sold. The check mark in the Bull column is that the rally sells have yet to produce a lower low versus the move to 2107s on 10/13. Bears will need to break last week's low if they want to put real pressure on the Bulls. That would open a test of the 200 day ema in the 2096 area. Bulls need to attempt to regain the 100 day ema and midband over the course of the week. The new weekly pivot comes in at 2132.7. It's proximity to the Daily pivot makes a test of that area from underneath today a very real possibility."