Princetontrader Futures Trading Education Daily Report April 21, 2017

MARKET VIEW

The S&P Futures broke above the daily midband and closed above.  This is the first major attempt to convert that level since April 5th when 2375 was rejected.  We discussed in yesterday’s webcast how the Bears were running out of opportunities to make lower lows and that the Bulls were running out of time to convert the daily midband.  The higher lows seen since Sunday night gave the directional nod to the Bulls.  The Bulls must follow through on yesterday’s action.  The Bears want the rejection and reversal.  Today sets up next week.  Watch your risk and go with the flow.  Don’t choose sides. Let the winning side chose you.

Thursday's Post: "The S&P Futures tested the daily midband on Wednesday and the test proved to be resistance yet again and resulted in a move back to the lower 2330s.  The 2330 area continues to hold as support and you can see on this morning’s hourly chart that the Bulls continue to create higher lows off the Sunday night opening low of 2322.75.  The Bears must take advantage to the Bulls inability to convert daily midband and take out the Sunday night low this week.  A failure to do so will put the Bulls in a better position to convert daily midband and make a move back to the 2374-77 area.  The 2338.25 weekly pivot remains the battleground."

Wednesday's Post: "The S&P Futures battling over the 2338 level.  Each side attempted to break the market in their direction.  The Bears pushed down to 2330.25 and the Bulls to 2344.50.  Overall the tape was sloppy (most battles over key inflection points are sloppy) and the cash close landed at 2338.25 – the weekly pivot.  One tick from the weekly pivot.  As we head into Wednesday the key will be whether the bulls can break over the 2344-48 level.  This is an area that has held price in all week and has prevented the Bulls from converting the daily midband (2348 area).  Conversion of the daily mid band for the second session this week would hand the Bulls an advantage for a more directional trade Thursday and Friday.  The Bears need to create some momentum.  We opened on the lows Sunday night and apart from creating a higher low at the daily Lower Band on the move to 2330.25 the price cation has been all Bulls. This has been a traditional recipe for how the Bears lose control of the tape.  If we are seeing true character change in this market then Bears assert themselves again in the 40s and we do another lower low below 2322.75."

Tuesday's Post: "The S&P Futures rallied off the Sunday night lows and traveled back to the Weekly Pivot at 2338.25 back mid-morning.  Bears failed to hold lower Bollinger Band, Daily Pivot and Weekly Pivot and allowed a close well above all those levels in the 2345/46 area.  As has been typical of this tape the Bulls were unable to hold their advantage overnight trading back to the 2334 area on the rumors of UK elections in June.  As we rally back from 34 the 2338-2341 area becomes critical.  For Bears it is an area where they could potentially find a lower high versus yesterday and a second chance to push lower and try to save the current lower band ride. (Daily lower Band is in the 2330 area.  Bulls need to have a replay of yesterday and push back over weekly pivot and squeeze shorts higher toward the 2348 Daily midband and attempt to convert that key area to shift the central focus from sell rallies to buy dips."

Monday's Post: "The S&P Futures lived up to their near perfect record of demonstrating excellent volatility and tradability while I am on vacation and not trading.  It was a fantastic week for directional opportunities.  The one consistent last week and the week prior was an inability to trade above and convert the daily midband.  The weight of the overall sell rallies environment with the help of news finally allowed price to engage with the lower Bollinger Band.  The bears should be able to begin a technical band ride Sunday night.  If that occurs the key to the early part of the week will be how price reacts to the new weekly pivot at 2338.25.  If the bears want to keep control the weekly pivot will act as resistance and new lows will be seen over the course of the week.  The initial task for the bulls would be to convert weekly pivot then attempt to convert the daily midband, the area which eluded them the past two weeks.  News will play a major role in who wins the week.  Trade accordingly."

CHARTS OF THE DAY

PIVOT TABLES