Princetontrader Futures Trading Education Daily Report December 15, 2016


7:34am ET  Webcast to follow.  The S&P Futures failed to trade above the 2273 all-time high from Tuesday in the reaction to the FOMC decision to raise rates. This lower high created a lower high at 2267/68 and opened up a move to the 2246/47 we had discussed this week as weekly lows and a potential test point. The low was made at 2243 and the Bears failed to convert 2246/47 to resistance and we closed above at 2252. Bears have been unable to retest 2246/47 in the overnight. As a result we have traded as high as 2257. If the Bears are going to follow through today they will need to trade below 46/47 and preferably close below. Such a move would open up a late week test of the Weekly Pivot at 2228. The Bulls will need a new all-timer high in order to preserve the Upper Band ride on the Daily chart. The is the best opportunity for bearish follow through we have seen in over a week.

Wednesday's Post: "The S&P Futures made another all-time high at 2273 after the bears failed to convert the 2246/2247 area for the second consecutive day. We have the FOMC at 2pm et and the reaction to both the announcement and the subsequent press conference should define the next move and the month of December. The 2246/47 support area will be key on any downward reaction. Any upward reaction will need to make another all-time high and engage the Daily upper band to preserve the existing band ride and maintain pressure on the bears."

Tuesday's Post: "The S&P Futures reaction high was mentioned as an opportunity for bears yesterday. Bears put together a decent day but were unable to finish off the Bulls with a final leg down. The byproduct of that failure was a choppy afternoon that gradually led to a grind high into the close. That grind continued during last nights Globex session. We are currently testing the lower high from yesterday (2259 area). Bears will want to hold there to begin to establish 2259/60 as multi day resistance. Bears can build upon that. Bulls want to keep making higher lows and the touch the upper band to continue that band ride on the way to another new all-time high. Bulls have the clear advantage until Bears convert key areas of price."

Monday's Post: "After last week's march higher the S&P Futures gapped up Sunday night. The is essentially the opposite of last Sunday where we had a gap down to the Daily midband. The upper band ride remains in full force and effect through at least tomorrow. We have a new weekly pivot at 2228.60 and Bears will need to convert that level to resistance in order to have any chance at a directional week. Bulls want to keep the market in the same habit of making dips in the morning that grind to new highs near the close. 2255.75, 2251.50 and 2239.75 are all key levels to watch."

Friday's Post: "As the S&P Futures make the transition from the December 2016 to the March 2017 Contract expect some fairly whippy trading today. Any intraday issues related to the roll are usually minimal in recent years. Today is pretty straightforward. We are in an upper band ride. That band ride will carryover into Monday as we have already touched the daily upper band during globex. Bulls want to preserve yesterday's low and ideally keep the grind higher moving. Bears are due for a slight retracement but looking for that on a Friday can be tough. Bears will not get any serious attention until they break and ideally close below the prior day low. Bears need a new weekly pivot in order to have a key level in reach of conversion today. This has been a typical week where one side loses the Daily mid band battle immediately then the weekly pivot after that. Once those levels are conceded and established as support/resistance the consequences are usually dire for the loser."

Thursday's Post: "We discussed all week the impact of the Daily mid band test on Sunday night. The quick establishment of Daily mid-band support and the immediate concession of the weekly pivot (2195) by the Bears put the bulls at a major advantage all week. The 2199/2200 area was consistently defended early in the week and moves to that area were dips to buy long. The conversion of 2209 put pressure on the Bulls to convert the 2213.75 ATH. Yesterday morning the moves to 2213.75 became too frequent and the levy finally broke starting a news fueled short squeeze to a new all-time high of 2241.25. This puts the Daily chart in upper band ride mode. The band ride has already been achieved for today with the touch of the upper band in the overnight. Bulls need to continue to engage the lower band and preserve each prior day's low to continue that ride. The Bears have a lot to prove. Upper Band rides like every high yesterday afternoon look like great shorts until they forget to go down. Shorts need to see mid bands on shorter term time frames(5min) become consistent resistance before a short can really be in a position to pay. We are short term extended but not at all on the longer term - we touched daily mid band 4 sessions ago - that's called reloading for more upside."



Daily Chart:

Hourly Chart: