Princetontrader Futures Trading Education Daily Report December 9, 2016

MARKET VIEW

7:34am ET  No Webcast Today - traveling.  As the S&P Futures make the transition from the December 2016 to the March 2017 Contract expect some fairly whippy trading today. Any intraday issues related to the roll are usually minimal in recent years. Today is pretty straightforward. We are in an upper band ride. That band ride will carryover into Monday as we have already touched the daily upper band during globex. Bulls want to preserve yesterday's low and ideally keep the grind higher moving. Bears are due for a slight retracement but looking for that on a Friday can be tough. Bears will not get any serious attention until they break and ideally close below the prior day low. Bears need a new weekly pivot in order to have a key level in reach of conversion today. This has been a typical week where one side loses the Daily mid band battle immediately then the weekly pivot after that. Once those levels are conceded and established as support/resistance the consequences are usually dire for the loser.

Thursday's Post: "We discussed all week the impact of the Daily mid band test on Sunday night. The quick establishment of Daily mid-band support and the immediate concession of the weekly pivot (2195) by the Bears put the bulls at a major advantage all week. The 2199/2200 area was consistently defended early in the week and moves to that area were dips to buy long. The conversion of 2209 put pressure on the Bulls to convert the 2213.75 ATH. Yesterday morning the moves to 2213.75 became too frequent and the levy finally broke starting a news fueled short squeeze to a new all-time high of 2241.25. This puts the Daily chart in upper band ride mode. The band ride has already been achieved for today with the touch of the upper band in the overnight. Bulls need to continue to engage the lower band and preserve each prior day's low to continue that ride. The Bears have a lot to prove. Upper Band rides like every high yesterday afternoon look like great shorts until they forget to go down. Shorts need to see mid bands on shorter term time frames(5min) become consistent resistance before a short can really be in a position to pay. We are short term extended but not at all on the longer term - we touched daily mid band 4 sessions ago - that's called reloading for more upside."

Wednesday's Post: "The Bulls have done everything right this week. They have defended the daily midband, broken above weekly pivot, broken over 2203 and now made a move over 2209. The final step would be to print all time highs and convert 2214 to support."

Tuesday's Post: "The S&P Futures tested their Daily Mid band on Sunday night's open and traded above the new Weekly pivot (2195). Resistance was found at 2209 but 2199 regular session low held during the overnight. As long at 2199-2195 holds we are in buy dips mode. Bulls will need to push over 2209 today and make a new all-time high if Bulls want to keep the pressure on the Bears. Bears need to convert weekly pivot and try to get back to the daily mid band. If that scenario plays out then matching lows or another successful defense of daily mid band will have to be avoided. That scenario would embolden dip buyers and likely put Bulls in control for the rest of the week."

Monday's Post: "The Bears did what we annotated on the chart Friday and opened the Sunday night session on out Daily mid-band target. As we head into a new week the key issue is was the daily mid-band the extent of the pullback or do the Bears have more. 2191.50 remains a critical level on the chart and it is bolstered with a new weekly pivot of 2194.93. If that later of price remains resistance the the Bears have an opportunity at something deeper. If we breach the weekly pivot and convert that level to support then the short term low may be in here at daily mid-band. That would open a retest of 2203. Until the daily mid-band is breached we remain in buy dips mode on longer term time frames."

 

PIVOT TABLE

120916pvt

ES CHARTS

Daily Chart:

As the S&P Futures make the transition from the December 2016 to the March 2017 Contract expect some fairly whippy trading today. Any intraday issues related to the roll are usually minimal in recent years. Today is pretty straightforward. We are in an upper band ride. That band ride will carryover into Monday as we have already touched the daily upper band during globex. Bulls want to preserve yesterday's low and ideally keep the grind higher moving. Bears are due for a slight retracement but looking for that on a Friday can be tough. Bears will not get any serious attention until they break and ideally close below the prior day low. Bears need a new weekly pivot in order to have a key level in reach of conversion today. This has been a typical week where one side loses the Daily mid band battle immediately then the weekly pivot after that. Once those levels are conceded and established as support/resistance the consequences are usually dire for the loser.

As the S&P Futures make the transition from the December 2016 to the March 2017 Contract expect some fairly whippy trading today. Any intraday issues related to the roll are usually minimal in recent years. Today is pretty straightforward. We are in an upper band ride. That band ride will carryover into Monday as we have already touched the daily upper band during globex. Bulls want to preserve yesterday's low and ideally keep the grind higher moving. Bears are due for a slight retracement but looking for that on a Friday can be tough. Bears will not get any serious attention until they break and ideally close below the prior day low. Bears need a new weekly pivot in order to have a key level in reach of conversion today. This has been a typical week where one side loses the Daily mid band battle immediately then the weekly pivot after that. Once those levels are conceded and established as support/resistance the consequences are usually dire for the loser.

Hourly Chart:

120916-hourly