Princetontrader Futures Trading Education Daily Report February 13, 2017
7:11am ET Webcast to follow.
The S&P Futures followed through to the upside on Friday. Very typical action following a range breakout to all-time highs the prior day. Bulls push up into the 2315 area and have made a new all-time high of 2318 during the Sunday overnight session. The push to 2318 was enough to engage the upper Bollinger band on the daily chart and preserve the current upper band ride. The Bollinger Bandwidth indicator continues to rise (indicating band expansion) but at 2.78 this morning there is plenty of room for further expansion. Every morning I show an hourly chart. That chart is particularly telling this morning as you look at the middle band on that chart. Price has held the middle band on the chart since price moved above it following the final weekly pivot rejection on February 8th. As long as hits of middle band are bought the bulls remains in control. We have a new weekly pivot (2303.33) and any test of that area in the next 1-2 sessions will be critical. Each side will want to establish weekly pivot as their ally. Should Bulls continue higher expect all dips, especially regular session morning dips to be buys. Bears need to convert weekly pivot to resistance and work their way back to the daily midband (20 day sma). That move would take quite a push. Until then the bulls remain in control.
Friday's Post: The S&P Futures solved the range battle yesterday with the Bulls breaking above the 2295/96 range top. As discussed the Bulls were able to print a new all-time high and engage the Upper Bollinger Band on the daily chart. A second touch of the upper Bollinger band during today’s Globex session has started another potential upper band ride. Bulls will need to follow through to the upside today. It is typical for Thursday trends to continue into Friday so Bulls walk into the day with a clear advantage. The victory by the Bulls follows multiple unsuccessful attempts by the Bears to convert weekly pivot (2282.4). Bears were only going to get so many chances to break down from the range before the constant trade above daily midband would eventually lead to another all-time high. The Bears need to try to make some type of progress today. That doesn’t commence until daily pivot is converted in the 2299 area.
Thursday's Post: "The S&P Futures attempted to break below the range low yesterday with a move into the 2281 area. As with most range trades it looked like it had a change to stay down but ultimately was a fantastic dip buy and we ground our way back to the range highs. Bulls stalled at 2291/92 for most of the night before popping over the top to meet the range high again at 2294-96. Today’s trade will hinge on whether the Bulls can finally push above the range and stay there. Bulls will need a new all-time high and engagement with the upper Bollinger Band. Bears will want to defend the range high and go after the weekly pivot again. Range trades require patience. Too early and you will take unnecessary heat."
Wednesday's Post: "The S&P Futures continue on in what has been a fairly frustrating week for both sides. Bears want to convert weekly pivot. Each trip to the mid-2280s has been support. Bulls want to convert 2294/95 and do a new all-time high. Each attempt has resulted in resistance. The majority of the week has been chopping between these two areas. The goals for each side remains clear. Convert the range. The next leg of the market goes to the side who can accomplish that task. Don’t get chopped up waiting for a winner to emerge. Tapes like this grind up traders."
Tuesday's Post: "The S&P Futures followed our game plan on Monday despite a tape devoid of much price action. We said yesterday “. If weekly pivot does get tested today it will likely be support on the first attempt. Any subsequent retest will be critical.” The first test in the morning was support. That set up a second test in the afternoon which was critical. Price held the retest and established support. Bulls have used that support to retest the 2294 level. If the bulls are going to engage the upper Bollinger Band and make a new all-time high 2294 must be converted. If the Bulls cannot convert that will weigh heavy on price over the course of the week and Bears will be able to gradually take advantage of this hesitation. Bears need new Globex lows and a push below the weekly pivot and 9 day sma in order to begin to look like they have enough fuel to move down to the 2271.50 level."