Princetontrader Futures Trading Education Daily Report February 3, 2017
7:30am ET Webcast to follow.
The S&P Futures continue to battle on either side the key price area of 2275-2280. Neither side can convert. Bears had yet another look at the 2263/64 area yesterday and price bounced just as it has with the other three moves to test. Bulls had nothing over the 2280 weekly pivot and have failed to get above again during last night’s Globex session. 2263/64 has been support since January 30th so a conversion of that area on a closing basis opens a test of the daily lower Bollinger Band (2251-2253). The optimist in me is viewing the upcoming Jobs Report as the potential tie breaking catalyst that gives the tape a decisive direction into next week. The proof is in the pudding so I’ll wait to see what price does. Bulls must solve 2280, Bears must solve 63/64. Have a great weekend!
Thursday's Post: "The S&P Futures ran as high as 2285 off the open. This proved to be a false breakout and the Bears proceeded to take back the key price area of 2275-2280 and hold it the entire session. Once again price traded below the daily midband but bears couldn’t hold daily pivot on a closing basis. The key to the overnight trade has been the retest of the 2275 area (monthly pivot). Bears held that are and have pushed back down as low as 2264.50. 2263/64 has been support since January 30th so a conversion of that area on a closing basis opens a test of the daily lower Bollinger Band (2251-2253). Should bears fail to convert 2263/64 it would open up a test of 2275 again."
Wednesday's Post: "The S&P Futures spent a second day battling over the Daily midband (20 day sma). Bears have been able to trade below that key area during both sessions but were unable to hold those lows. Yesterday’s final attempt to convert 2263/64 failed and resulted in a squeeze up into the regular close. The new monthly pivot (2275.08) proved to be overnight support. Resistance is in the area on the weekly pivot (2280). The key to today, and perhaps the rest of the week, is which side can convert the price band of Monthly/Weekly Pivot (2275-2280). Win that band…win the day."
Tuesday's Post: "The Bears converted the weekly Pivot on the S&P Futures at 2280.00. The pushed down to the 2263 area before yielding a bounce back above the daily mid band (20 day sma). Globex has been a two way battle with the focus being on the daily midband again. Today that is essentially the 2270 level. Bulls have consistently defended the area. If Bears convert daily mid band then it opens a move to the lower band. If bulls defend and get back over the 228o that opens a potential retest of highs. Bears were in a good position for lower prices. How today reacts will be very telling."
Monday's Post: "The Bears showed up for work on Friday and protected the prior All-time high of 2299.50 while trading below the prior day low early in the day. I mentioned to subscribers early during Friday’s regular session that the breach of the Thursday low opened the door to further downside. We also discussed that the most likely destination for that down move would be the new weekly pivot (2280.00). Bears pushed down to 2281 Sunday night be so far have gone no further. How price reacts to the daily pivot today is the most important take away from the day. Bulls must defend and Bears must convert. A conversion of weekly pivot opens up a test of the midband on the daily chart (2268 area). Bulls will need to trade back to the all-time high today in order to preserve the upper band ride. Holding the weekly pivot for the entire globex session puts that possibility on the table. The move off the regular open will be key."
Friday's Post: "The Bulls continue to maintain their upper band ride on the daily chart. Their task is to keep putting pressure on shorts by engaging the upper band and making another new all time high. Bears need to get below yesterday’s low at 2289.50. If Bears can accomplish that then a push into Sunday/Monday that keep price below the upper band would end the ride. Bears must first continue to defend 2296.50 which was resistance during yesterday’s very narrow regular session. Until bears can break 2289.50 dips remain buys ultimately."