Princetontrader Futures Trading Education Daily Report March 21, 2017
The S&P futures spent Monday gravitating back to the 2369-2373 zone. We traded as high as the daily pivot at 2376 but the bulls were unable to capitalize on the up move and we retraced below the 2369 support area and down to our proprietary lower level at 2365.50. At that point, the Bears had an excellent opportunity to convert not only the 2369 supports zone but the weekly pivot, nine day SMA in the daily mid-band and establish themselves as being potentially in control for the week. What happened instead is what has typically happened when the Bears get to keep moments…we rallied. The bulls took price back into the 2372 area. We closed inside the original 2369 to 2373 zone. In short, we resolved none of the issues that were pending heading into Monday's trade. The Bollinger bands on the daily chart remain compressed and we are setting up for directional move. The trading focus should be on taking good setups, respecting risk and not overtrading in this environment. The bulls need to convert 2376 and attempt to convert last week’s high of 2388.75. The Bears need to spend Tuesday below 2369, break the Monday low of 2365.50 and attempt to convert the prior floor at 2354 which is the area of the daily lower Bollinger band.
Monday's Post: "The S&P Futures moved up to the 2382 resistance area and formed what could potentially be a double top. The Bulls continue to defend support at their daily midband/9 day sma (2369/70). The new weekly pivot comes in at 2373.60 along with the pre-FOMC price of 2372. This setup up a key zone of price between 2369 and 2373. The ability of one side of the other to convert that price zone to their advantage sets them up and being able to control the tape for the week. Bear conversion would mean a conversion of weekly pivot, 9 day sma and daily midband. Bulls conversion would hold support and those levels. The targets for price after an advantage has been established would be the upper/lower Bollinger band."
Friday's Post: "The S&P Futures spent yesterday morning pulling back to the 2373 area. What could have been a trend down failed to materialize in the afternoon session. After a sloppy retest of the 2373 area the bulls we able to push price back toward the 2380 area. Overnight was flat to choppy. As we get ready to trade Friday there are two key concepts. The Bulls are technically in a band ride after two touches of some tight upper Bollinger bands. If the band ride materializes then the bulls will need to trade over 2390 today to maintain the band ride. Bears want to hold price under the daily pivot (2380.58) and get back to the 2372/73 area. 2372 is the pre-FOMC price so a break today is critical. Failure to do so makes yesterday’s weakness look like a retest of the FOMC breakout that holds. That’s how floors get made. We already have a floor at 2354. A floor at 2372/73 would open a move to a new all-timer high next week. If the bears can convert 72 their job is only half done. The daily midband is 2370 and the 9 day sma is 2371. Basically, think of 2370-2373 as a bull/bear price zone that each side must win to achieve their intermediate term objectives. Respect risk. Don’t overtrade."
Thursday's Post: "The S&P Futures were taken into control by the Bulls yesterday. This has been a pattern we have seen many times over the past few years. The Bears allowed a double bottom at 2354 then failed to convert weekly pivot, 9 day sma or the daily mid-band as resistance. A series of higher lows follows and we find ourselves less than 15 handles from the continuation all-time high at 2401. Over the past couple of years, the futures have liked to close out the contract at contract highs. If that happens again then we should continue to grind toward 2401 today. During yesterday Daly Wrap Up I discussed the 2380 area as being the key to the overnight trade. It was a risk marker again a long since 3pm ET and provided 2-3 very nice day maker trades. I hope everyone took advantage."
Wednesday's Post: "The S&P Futures continue to battle over control of the daily midband. The tape yesterday was pretty sloppy after the initial move down. We had resistance at weekly pivot after bears avoided matching lows at 2362. However, what could have been a trend down day failed to follow-through when the s3 area at 2354 held and has set up a support area with the Friday low and 2354 and yesterday’s low at 2354.75. Bulls made a sloppy whippy grind higher from there. The weekly pivot had a chance to hold in the overnight session but it failed to be resistance so we find ourselves trading in the same area that we were yesterday. Today’s big deal in the Fed. Announcement at 2pm and a presser at 2:30pm. We are traders not economists so we trade what we see. We don’t game the Fed and make assumptions about what price will do after the announcement. Trade what you see. In the room, we will follow our method that has served us very well. Get a reaction range watch price and find the setup."