Princetontrader Futures Trading Education Daily Report March 6, 2017
The S&P Futures are steadily making lower highs and lower lows since the March 1st high at 2401. The new weekly pivot at 2280.00 will be a critical bull/bear line for this week. If the Bears can seal the 2280 as resistance then the Bears should have an environment where they can convert the 9 day sma on a closing basis. The obstacle to the Bears getting any traction in this tape is their consistent inability to convert any area of real importance. The Weekly Pivots and 9 day sma would fit that criteria. Absent the Bears being able to hold a key area…all dips are buys.
Friday's Post: "The S&P Futures retraced some of the gains made on Wednesday. Bears have a unique opportunity to follow through on a prior days showing and attempt to isolate the 2401 high headed into next week. The key to this would be a close below the 9 day sma (approximately 2370). The 9 day sma has been firm support lows on February 24th and February 28th. Bulls want to defend the Globex low and make a run back into the 2386 area. The key to watch today is whether rallies are sold. We rallied in the premarket to 2380. 2380 is the hourly midband which we identified a few weeks ago as an area that when viewed on the chart as consistent resistance will be a tell for a more volatile, more two sided market. That makes the hourly midband something to keep an eye on today."
Thursday's Post: The S&P Futures spent yesterday punishing the Bears for failing to take advantage of opportunities early in the week to convert the weekly pivot at 2261.10. After the President’s speech Tuesday night failed to pull the tape back Europe opened and took the market higher, that price action continued into our regular session propelling price to 2401. As we get into the day after the key will be where is support on a pullback. 2389.50 is the best candidate currently as we have matching lows in that area on Globex. Bears would need to convert 2389 then 2370 and make a run at the 9 day sma to be able to gain any real traction. Bulls engaged the upper Bollinger band yesterday and would need to do so again in order to start another band ride. That would take 2408-2412. A tall order but achievable if Bears cannot hold key levels as resistance.
Wednesday's Post: "The S&P Futures provided the bears with another attempt to convert the weekly pivot yesterday during a mid-day push lower. The bears squandered that opportunity and after the doom and gloom of last night speech never materialized Europe took the opportunity to drive the futures to fresh all-time highs. We have traded as high as 2378.75 as of this writing and there looks to be more. As we reach higher the round number at 2400 will begin to magnetize as the market likes to get a look at the next round number in sight. The bulls want to hold 2370/71 and seal that area as a floor. The Bears want to get back below 70 and try to get back to weekly pivot at 2361.10. The Bulls have a clear advantage as dip buyers are fearless and relentless. The Bears that are left have to avoid being roadkill. That dynamic is why we continue to head higher here."
Tuesday's Post: "The S&P Futures made yet another new all-time high on Monday with three trips over the 2370 area. The current “high of the moment” is 2370.75. The key takeaway from yesterday’s regular session was that we got the test of weekly pivot that we were looking for and that again bulls won that battle. Bulls touched the weekly then spent the morning defending higher lows against that area. What followed is what we have seen so many times in the situation over the past 5-7 years. Bears capitulate and bulls are able to take price to a new high. We rinse and repeat and move on. The market gets habitual and early week tests of weekly pivot have been a cornerstone of good trading tape action. The fact that we tested the weekly pivot on Monday morning is indicative of a more volatile two-sided tape over the next month. Tapes that test weekly pivot early in the week to establish which side has tape control behave better from a trading standpoint. This is encouraging in the face of a tape that has provided less intraday opportunities than we have seen in some time."