Princetontrader Futures Trading Education Daily Report March 3, 2017
8:23am ET Webcast to follow.
The S&P Futures retraced some of the gains made on Wednesday. Bears have a unique opportunity to follow through on a prior days showing and attempt to isolate the 2401 high headed into next week. The key to this would be a close below the 9 day sma (approximately 2370). The 9 day sma has been firm support lows on February 24th and February 28th. Bulls want to defend the Globex low and make a run back into the 2386 area. The key to watch today is whether rallies are sold. We rallied in the premarket to 2380. 2380 is the hourly midband which we identified a few weeks ago as an area that when viewed on the chart as consistent resistance will be a tell for a more volatile, more two sided market. That makes the hourly midband something to keep an eye on today.
Thursday's Post: The S&P Futures spent yesterday punishing the Bears for failing to take advantage of opportunities early in the week to convert the weekly pivot at 2261.10. After the President’s speech Tuesday night failed to pull the tape back Europe opened and took the market higher, that price action continued into our regular session propelling price to 2401. As we get into the day after the key will be where is support on a pullback. 2389.50 is the best candidate currently as we have matching lows in that area on Globex. Bears would need to convert 2389 then 2370 and make a run at the 9 day sma to be able to gain any real traction. Bulls engaged the upper Bollinger band yesterday and would need to do so again in order to start another band ride. That would take 2408-2412. A tall order but achievable if Bears cannot hold key levels as resistance.
Wednesday's Post: "The S&P Futures provided the bears with another attempt to convert the weekly pivot yesterday during a mid-day push lower. The bears squandered that opportunity and after the doom and gloom of last night speech never materialized Europe took the opportunity to drive the futures to fresh all-time highs. We have traded as high as 2378.75 as of this writing and there looks to be more. As we reach higher the round number at 2400 will begin to magnetize as the market likes to get a look at the next round number in sight. The bulls want to hold 2370/71 and seal that area as a floor. The Bears want to get back below 70 and try to get back to weekly pivot at 2361.10. The Bulls have a clear advantage as dip buyers are fearless and relentless. The Bears that are left have to avoid being roadkill. That dynamic is why we continue to head higher here."
Tuesday's Post: "The S&P Futures made yet another new all-time high on Monday with three trips over the 2370 area. The current “high of the moment” is 2370.75. The key takeaway from yesterday’s regular session was that we got the test of weekly pivot that we were looking for and that again bulls won that battle. Bulls touched the weekly then spent the morning defending higher lows against that area. What followed is what we have seen so many times in the situation over the past 5-7 years. Bears capitulate and bulls are able to take price to a new high. We rinse and repeat and move on. The market gets habitual and early week tests of weekly pivot have been a cornerstone of good trading tape action. The fact that we tested the weekly pivot on Monday morning is indicative of a more volatile two-sided tape over the next month. Tapes that test weekly pivot early in the week to establish which side has tape control behave better from a trading standpoint. This is encouraging in the face of a tape that has provided less intraday opportunities than we have seen in some time."
Monday's Post: "The S&P Futures pulled back Friday into a fairly classic dip buy scenario and spent the majority of the day chopping around the 56-57 area before heading back to 2365 into the close. If we are to end up in the range trade/consolidation at highs that I’m looking for we should migrate back to the mid to low 2350s over the next 1-2 sessions. The new weekly pivot is in the 2359 area and would be a natural area to be tested early in the week per usual. Support at weekly pivot in an up trending market means more of the same regarding dip buying and grinding higher over the course of the market day. A conversion of the weekly pivot gives the bears some fuel to test the 9 day sma. Major support remains at 2349/50 and 2336/37. Bulls are watching the daily upper band run away from them. Their best hope is defending all dips and pushing back to the higher end of these ranges and patiently waiting for another leg up."
Friday's Post: "The S&P Futures had two different days yesterday. The morning belonged to the bears who took price down to the s2 support area and made matching lows at 2353. We discussed 2355 as a key support area in yesterday’s premarket content and once 2355 could not be sealed as resistance after the bounce the bulls were able to take price back to the 2365 area. Overnight we saw a failure at the daily pivot/hourly midband (2361) which took us to a lower low versus yesterday. If we continue to see lower low Bears will have an opportunity to close price below the 9 day sma for the first time since 2/2. Bulls need to defend 2349/50 and get back over 61. The secondary band ride has ridden off into the sunset. A range trade is on the table, especially with yesterday’s price action. If the low 50s hold and we head back to 64/65 we have likely found our range."