Princetontrader Pivot Report November 10, 2016

MARKET VIEW

8:47 am ET  Webcast to follow. Well you don't see that every day. Just a crazy trading session with a ton of opportunity and a ton of risk. We have popped over the old 2168 range high during the overnight. Bulls will want to convert that area to support and make a run at the 2191.50 all time high. Bears want to hold 2180 and on a hard break of 2156 can retrace price all the way back to 2118-2120. The next few days will be critical. The drop and the pop were pretty standard although much more violent than many (including me) were expecting. The whole process played out in one session. The market now must actually decide how it wants to handle now into the inauguration. Be careful and respect risk. Plenty of volatility for everyone.

Wednesday's Post: "What a wild night. 2150 to 2028.50 limit down. We have rallied 90 handles off the low as we head into the regular session. Please be careful and consider waiting for the market to settle down a little before trading it. We are seeing either a bear market rally that will be sold to a lower low or the start of a V. In either scenario we likely pull back off the regular open. This issue then is whether dip buyers stay strong and start doing higher high on short term time frames. Be safe."

Tuesday's Post: "The band ride has ended in grand fashion. A Sunday night gap up which followed through into a trend up day. Price has paused at the Monthly Pivot (2132 area). Support was found during globex at 2122 (daily mid-band). The key for today will be to see if daily mid band holds as support throughout the day and thereby offer a springboard (if the election cooperates to a higher high. The bears want to get the daily mid-band back on their side. I will be very leery of further upside if we spend the day walking up higher into the final election results tonight. That setup tends to be a sell the news event.Watch monthly pivot and daily mid-band in today's session. They have provided the Globex range and should be a good guide for how regular action wants to trade. (Breakout above 2132/break down below 2122/trade within the range). Have a great day and go vote."

Monday's Post: "The power of the lower band ride could be seen in the magnetic selloff on Friday afternoon. However, that move lower followed by the Sunday gap above the Friday high will very likely end the band ride. This is a "wounded animal" tape, meaning that each side has been nailed over the past 24 hours of trading. First the bulls who were looking beyond 2094 on Friday and now the shorts who were looking much lower headed into this week. This tape is dangerous and unpredictable. This tape will stay that way through Tuesday's election results. Use caution, control size and respect risk."

Friday's Post: "The lower band ride continues and we are now pressing against the July floor which acted as the post brexit springboard for the rally to highs. This is the pivotal level as we head into the jobs report. The bulls must convert daily lower band to start any meaningful rally. Bears must continue to hold that line. The series of lower highs and lower lows underscores the band ride/sell rallies trade that has worked well all week. Conversion of daily pivot area is a good indication bulls can rally. Absent that, this price pattern continues."

Thursday's Post: "We remain on a very text book lower band ride. The Lower BB is holding price in as resistance at the moments and we are in the channel between the 2 standard deviation lower band and the 3 standard deviation lower band for a second day. The tell that a bounce can run is when the lower band is converted to support. It would be the latest in a series of higher lows. Otherwise it's more lows and a test of the 2081/82 floor from July."

 

PIVOT TABLE

111016pvt

ES CHARTS

Hourly:

111016-hourlyDaily:

Well you don't see that every day. Just a crazy trading session with a ton of opportunity and a ton of risk.  We have popped over the old 2168 range high during the overnight.  Bulls will want to convert that area to support and make a run at the 2191.50 all time high.  Bears want to hold 2180 and on a hard break of 2156 can retrace price all the way back to 2118-2120.  The next few days will be critical.  The drop and the pop were pretty standard although much more violent than many (including me) were expecting. The whole process played out in one session.  The market now must actually decide how it wants to handle now into the inauguration.  Be careful and respect risk.  Plenty of volatility for everyone.